'No one can definitively explain': fish exports hit 16-year low

This year's plunge follows a rebound last year after both catch and exports fell to historic lows in 2024. 

The state-owned Maldives Industrial Fisheries Company, which purchases and exports the bulk of the skipjack tuna caught by Maldivian fishermen, attributed the 2024 decline to "environmental challenges (warming ocean temperatures and disrupted bait fish availability)" in its annual report.

MIFCO exported 26,643 metric tonnes of frozen tuna in 2024, down sharply from 62,352 metric tonnes in 2023. Revenue from frozen tuna exports fell from MVR1.7 billion (US$110 million) in 2023 to MVR693 million in 2024. 

In 2025, both fish catch and exports returned to pre-2024 levels. But the most recent statistics paint a bleak picture. Exports during the first six months of 2026 are even lower than 2024. 

There is no shortage of explanations. Some point to the El Niño brewing in the Pacific, warmer surface water and bait fish no longer gathering on the reefs. Others cite fuel costs driven up by the Middle East conflict, the 2024 shift to a floating purchase rate and Maldivians leaving the ancestral trade for easier work at government companies.  

Despite the dwindling workforce, fish products accounted for 93 per cent of domestic exports in 2025, which earned US$144 million in scarce foreign currency.

Fish exports from January to June stood just shy of 17,000 metric tonnes, numbers sourced from Customs and published by the Maldives Monetary Authority show. 

It was the lowest figure since the first half of 2010. 

Exports from February to May were the lowest for the period within the past decade.

The trend follows the record lows of 2024. The lowest monthly catch since data collection started in 1985 was recorded in July 2024.

Fish catch was low throughout the year even when accounting for the seasonal mid-year dip around the onset of the southwest monsoon when extreme weather keeps boats at home.

Fisheries researcher Riyaz Jauharee suggested lower fishing effort may have contributed to the lower catch and exports in 2024. 

Fishing effort (calculated by days) was 20,229 in 2024 compared to 25,817 in 2023, according to the Maldives national report submitted to the Indian Ocean Tuna Commission’s scientific committee in 2025.

Riyaz also pointed to the government’s decision to change from a fixed purchase rate to a floating rate in mid-2024 as a possible contributing factor.

He was unsure about the exact reason for this year's steep decline. But elevated fuel prices must be considered alongside changes to the climate, he noted.

Athif Shakoor, MIFCO’s strategic consultant, was equally hesitant to assign a definitive cause.

"MIFCO’s position is that fishing has been down again this year after a recovery last year. I was not involved in the 2024 annual report so I cannot speak about it," he said.

"No one can definitively explain why this is happening."

Possible explanations could include the impact of El Niño on Indian Ocean fisheries, he added. 

Ahmed Shabin, a climatologist who previously worked at the Maldives Meteorological Service, said it was too early to establish a direct causal link between warming oceans and the decline in fish catch. 

"Because there may be other factors too. The effects of El Niño also take time to reach our waters. Usually such climate-attributed changes are done through studies in hindsight, not while the changes are happening," he explained.

“But purely talking about science, during an El Niño, sea surface temperatures do rise. It is one reason that contributes to low catch. It becomes harder to catch fish from shallow waters. This is because there is a thermocline below the surface where the plankton aggregate, this is where the small fish also aggregate and the tuna also feeds. When the upper layers get hotter, this line will move deeper. The plankton will go deeper and the rest of the food chain follows."

In 2024, the World Bank warned that the Maldives could lose almost all of its fish catch potential by the end of the century under a high-emissions scenario. About 91 per cent of key species would be at very high risk from warming and acidification. Whether 2026 is the leading edge of that or an ordinary bad year is the open question. 

Fishermen who spoke to Maldives Independent described a reality on the seas consistent with the data. 

Fishing has been poor this year and boats from southern atolls have been forced to travel to central regions, fisherman from Laamu and Huvadhoo atolls said. 

The owner of the Fahimagu boat from Laamu Gan said finding bait fish had become increasingly difficult in recent years. Boats are now unable to source bait from around the atoll.

"Because we have to travel further to get bait fish, the rise in fuel costs because of the war means that it’s harder to make ends meet for fishermen," he said.

Environmental factors such as sedimentation from land reclamation exacerbates the problem, he said. Murky waters on shallow reefs prevent bait fish from gathering.

"More fishing boats are stopping and changing to other uses. Even now there are about three or four boats that have stopped fishing since last year. One of those boats has now been turned into a cargo boat to travel to Malé," he said.

Samrath Hassan, one of the captains of the award-winning Kamana boat from Gaaf Dhaalu Madaveli, blamed higher sea surface temperatures and unsustainable bait fishing practices.

"I am someone who regularly attends a lot of fisheries seminars held in the region and internationally, and this is a regular topic of discussion. The yellowfin and bluefin tuna fishery by countries like Oman, Sri Lanka, Thailand has been affected because of this," he said.

"The sea surface temperature is rising and especially about one metre of the ocean surface is exceptionally hotter now, which means fish do not come up.

“In these seminars, they have a bunch of professors who show these trends in graphs and explain these changes. From what they have shown, it seems like fishing is going to be low again next year and in 2028 it might get better."

The struggling Maldivian fishery might be forced to shift from the traditional pole-and-line method to long lines in order to "fish from 40 metres deep," Samrath said, referring to Oman's success with long-lining.

"Maldives government also gave permission to do long-lining but there were so many issues with foreign boats taking over the industry and it not being monitored properly that it needed to be stopped," he said. "In addition to this, around our waters west of the Bay of Bengal we have purse seiners from other countries like India, Sri Lanka, Thailand taking fish by using nets which affects us."

According to Samrath, fishermen in Huvadhoo have been minimally impacted by higher fuel prices because private supplier Hawks has been selling fuel at a rate of MVR17 per litre there. Huvadhoo contributes the largest fish catch annually.

Samrath raised the alarm about practices that could be putting the country's bait fishery at risk.

"In places like Japan, they protect bait fishing grounds. We have to do the same," he said.

"Our fishermen have been using powerful lights to take more and more bait from the remaining bait fishing grounds. What started with two light tubes in the early 2000s, eventually we changed to two mercury lights, and then four lights from all sides and now we even have bright lights sunken underwater to bring up bait fish.”

The practice threatens the sustainability of the environment-friendly handling and pole-and-line fisheries, he warned. 

"Imagine the impact of this on the bait fish and the reef [...]. Without bait we would not have a tuna fishery," he said.

"Even with the changes to the environment, if we can change these practices and do it more sustainably, we can keep this alive for the next generation. Otherwise we will have no choice but to change to long-line fishing."

He flagged the lack of young people to replenish the workforce as another serious challenge. Political jobs are driving people away, he said.

“In Gaaf Dhaalu, most boats employ expatriates now. In Madaveli, we still have locals on boats but we are barely able to distribute MVR5,000 per month to each crew member. Meanwhile, the government is offering jobs."

Political appointments to state-owned enterprises such as Fenaka drew workers away from the industry and left fishing vessels without enough crew, President Dr Mohamed Muizzu acknowledged in June this year. 

However, he sought to place the blame solely on the former administration. The number of workers employed by SOEs doubled from 18,676 people in 2018 to 36,729 between 2019 and 2023, the finance minister told parliament earlier this month. 

But the current administration took on 4,938 staff over the past two and a half years, he revealed. Several yellowfin tuna fishing boats lost crew in large numbers during the 2024 parliamentary election, fishermen told the Maldives Independent in December.