Referendum battle lines drawn as opposition launches "no" campaign

Less than a month before voters decide whether to hold the presidential and parliamentary elections on the same day, the campaign intensified over the weekend. Holding elections at different times undermines national stability, President Dr Mohamed Muizzu contended at a rally on Saturday night. A day later, a cross-party group held a press conference urging voters to reject the proposal. The main opposition Maldivian Democratic Party stepped up the "no" campaign, staging a pickup rally in Hulhumalé and putting up banners across Malé.  

The vote – the country's first nationwide public referendum since voters chose a presidential system in 2007 – will take place alongside the local council elections on April 4. 

Here is where the two sides stand on the key arguments.

The government proposed constitutional amendments to hold future presidential and parliamentary elections on the same day. Under the current system, voters go to the polls twice within six months, electing the president in September and members of parliament in April.

The proposed change would bring forward the start of the parliamentary term from May to December 1, shortening the five-year term of the current People's Majlis by six months. The first combined poll would take place in late 2028.

Majority Leader Ibrahim Falah submitted the government-sponsored bill on January 3 while parliament was in recess. MPs were informed the following day of an extraordinary sitting scheduled for January 5. The bill was debated that morning and sent to committee by the afternoon. The public was invited to comment by a deadline of 2pm on January 15, the same day the committee was set to complete its review.

Parliament's independent institutions committee approved the amendments on February 9 in a meeting that lasted five minutes. The bill was passed on the following day by the 93-member house, where the ruling People's National Congress holds 75 seats, a supermajority that comfortably exceeds the three-quarters majority required to amend the constitution.

A week later, President Muizzu issued a decree to hold the referendum, which is required because amendments to constitutional provisions on presidential terms and elections can only be ratified after approval in a public referendum. If a majority of voters reject the proposal on April 4, the amendments will be nullified.

On February 19, MDP's national council voted to campaign against the proposed changes, citing concerns over an alleged hidden agenda, lack of public consultation, and insufficient time for voter preparation.

At a rally on Saturday night, former President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih challenged the mandate for the reform. Merging the elections was not in Muizzu's manifesto, he noted. "A leader comes to power with promises to the people and a manifesto. Is this in the pledges book of the current President Muizzu?" he asked. 

Government leaders have objected to the opposition's characterisations of the proposal as "merging" or "combining" the elections, insisting the two polls would remain separate. Voters would cast two ballots on the same day rather than a single consolidated vote, they stressed. 

Presenting the bill in January, Majority Leader Falah said concurrent elections would save MVR 80 million (US$ 5.1 million) from the budget. Former Elections Commission chairman Fuwad Thowfeek previously estimated that combining the polls could save around MVR 150 million out of about MVR 300 million it costs to hold separate presidential and parliamentary elections, including a potential run-off.

The government also points to reduced logistical burdens. Schools that serve as polling stations would face fewer closures. Election officials would only need to be recruited and trained once. The transport of ballot boxes and materials would be consolidated. 

Citing political science research, pro-government outlet MMTV argued that mid-term elections create "political budget cycles" in which governments loosen fiscal discipline to win votes, a pattern that concurrent elections would eliminate by removing the incentive for short-term spending decisions between national polls.

But at the Sunday press conference, opposition figures flatly dismissed the cost-saving rationale. Former Deputy Speaker Eva Abdulla called it "laughable," alleging that the true purpose was to allow the PNC to pool all campaign resources – chiefly jobs and contracts – into a single effort to capture both the executive and legislative branches.

"In reality what they are trying to do under the guise of cost cutting is cutting costs for the ruling party – not even for the government, the ruling party and the president's party," Eva said. "What they are trying to do is making it easier to take both branches of power in one round, with one campaign."

Echoing critics who have questioned the government's intent, Eva argued that reducing the number of political appointees, trimming embassy staff at overseas missions, and scrapping wasteful projects would be more appropriate places to start with reducing unnecessary expenditure.

The government currently has more than 400 deputy ministers alone and eliminating 30 of those positions would save the MVR 60 million, former MDP MP Hassan Latheef noted. Foregoing the decorative lights the government spends MVR 50 million on every Eid would achieve the same thing, he suggested.

During the parliamentary debate in January, MDP MP Abdul Ghafoor Moosa flagged plans to hire 500 employees for the public works division of the local government ministry, which would add MVR 72 million annually to recurrent expenditure. The state's wage bill has grown from MVR 11 billion under the previous administration to MVR 17 billion, he said, attributing the increase to salaries and allowances for 4,100 political appointees and the bloated workforces of state-owned enterprises.

"An election is one of the most fundamental pillars of democracy," Eva said. "Elections are a power that rests in the hands of the people. The power that rests in the hands of the people is not where cutting costs should begin."

At a press briefing last week, Muizzu argued that conducting both polls on the same day would improve turnout, citing the 10-point gap between presidential and parliamentary votes. “I want a participatory democracy where the election to choose the people's representatives is one where more people vote than in the parliamentary election," he said.

Other ruling party leaders have pressed the turnout argument as a central plank of the PNC's referendum campaign.

But opponents of the amendments say voters are most likely to pick the same party across both races when they cast ballots for president and parliament on the same day. The phenomenon is known as the coattail effect. They say this would make it even easier for a newly elected president to secure a compliant parliamentary supermajority.

The current system staggers the two elections by about five months, which the opposition says was a deliberate design choice. Former defence minister Mariya Ahmed Didi, a former lawmaker who served on the Special Majlis that drafted the 2008 constitution, said the framers intended for voters to have time to assess the president's early performance before choosing their parliament.

"The parliamentary election comes about five months after the presidential election so that the people have time to reflect on what kind of leader they have elected," Mariya said.

Hassan Latheef, who also participated in drafting the constitution, pointed to the staggered terms of independent state institutions as further evidence of deliberate design. The terms were set to expire at different times precisely to prevent any single government from taking control of all institutions at once, he said.

Former President Abdulla Yameen made a similar argument. If a president performs poorly in their first months, voters can respond by electing opposition MPs who will provide oversight, he argued. Merging the elections would eliminate this check on presidential power, he warned.

But supporters of the amendments point to a marked incumbency advantage in the last two election cycles. In both 2019 and 2024, the party that won the presidency went on to secure a supermajority in parliament the following April. The government says holding both elections on the same day would level the playing field by preventing the ruling party from exploiting the momentum and access to state resources that come with the "honeymoon period" between elections.

Speaking at an MDP rally last week, former President Solih called the referendum a "constitutional coup" and argued that concurrent polls would only make it easier for ruling parties. It would lead to a parliament filled entirely with government MPs and the complete loss of any opportunity to hold the executive accountable, he warned.

Whether the constitution's framers intended to keep the elections apart has become one of the most contested points. Attorney General Ahmed Usham told the parliamentary committee reviewing the bill that there was never any intention to keep the two elections far apart when the constitution was drafted. The current six-month gap was not a sufficient period to assess presidential performance, he said.

Mariya rejected this. "What is being discussed are two separate matters," she said. "One is whether the two elections should be held together or not. This is not a discussion about six months, four months, or two months." She said she was certain that members of the Special Majlis never discussed holding the two elections simultaneously.

Deputy Speaker Ahmed Nazim, PNC MP for Dhiggaru and a former Special Majlis member, pushed back on Sunday night. The MDP was making it sound as though concurrent elections were unprecedented, he said at a campaign rally, noting that Indonesia, Türkiye, Seychelles, and several Latin American countries all hold presidential and parliamentary elections on the same day.

The current six-month gap between elections dates back to delays in formulating laws after the 2008 presidential elections, which forced the 2009 parliamentary elections to be postponed to May, Nazim recalled. "Not holding the two elections together was never the thinking of the framers of the constitution," he said. 

Both President Muizzu and PNC leaders have sought to cast the current electoral calendar as a source of instability. Holding two national elections six months apart disrupts the country's cohesion, Muizzu said. The prolonged period of political campaigning paralyses governance as the new administration is barely able to begin work when it becomes consumed by the next electoral cycle, he argued.

Concurrent elections would "pave the way to breathe and live at ease with the security, peace and stability that would come to the nation," Majority Leader Falah said at the rally, urging voters not to get caught up in the opposition's rhetoric. The MDP was opposed to the amendments because the party's dozen lawmakers would lose six months worth of pay if parliament's term is shortened, he claimed, whereas ruling party lawmakers were willing to sacrifice their salaries "for the greater good." 

Opposition figures did not directly address the stability argument at Sunday's press conference. But Eva Abdulla stressed that the proposed changes would be a structural and permanent change to the country's democratic order rather than a minor administrative adjustment. She questioned whether the disruption of separate elections is a price worth paying for the accountability they provide.

At the Saturday night rally, President Muizzu accused the MDP-supermajority parliament during the first six months of his administration of obstructing his administration, causing many initiatives to stall for nearly a year. The MDP had attempted to pass a vote of no confidence and overturn the people's decision, he said.

While no impeachment motion was formally filed, the Washington Post reported in December 2024 that opposition lawmakers did privately discuss removing Muizzu in early 2024 and MDP and Democrats members canvassed support for the vote. The Post obtained an internal document in which opposition politicians proposed bribing 40 MPs – including some from Muizzu's own party – to secure the two-thirds majority. The effort ultimately collapsed after Muizzu flipped 11 opposition lawmakers to the ruling party. 

Opposition members denied an impeachment motion was ever formally filed. Former MP Ali Hussein argued that the ability to hold a president accountable through a no-confidence vote was the system working as designed. "The presidency is really a job the people give for a five-year period. If the job is not being performed well, in the event that citizens and the parliament feel so, the people and the parliament reserve the right to remove him," he said. However, he added, a president cannot be easily removed and has recourse to the Supreme Court.

Several opposition figures have proposed alternatives they say would achieve the government's stated goals without the democratic trade-offs.

Fayyaz Ismail proposed a staggered system in which half of MPs would be elected at the same time as the president and the rest during a mid-term election. This would be similar to the US system of mid-term congressional elections. Having half of parliament facing voters mid-term would give citizens a regular opportunity to respond to government performance, he argued.

Both Ghafoor and Fayyaz have backed merging the presidential and local council elections instead. Both involve electing representatives to deliver services, one at the national level and one at the island level, they observed. The parliamentary election could be preserved as a separate accountability mechanism while still reducing costs.

Fayyaz also proposed reducing the size of parliament by abolishing the constitutional requirement for one constituency per 5,000 residents, arguing that larger constituencies would produce higher-quality MPs and restore meaningful power to the legislature.

Former President Mohamed Nasheed had been the lone opposition voice backing the amendments before a change of heart in late February. "In the upcoming referendum, I am ready to support the party's decision and say no," he reportedly wrote in the MDP's WhatsApp group.

Jumhooree Party leader Qasim Ibrahim meanwhile backed the government. Concurrent elections were "long overdue," he wrote on X. The current system forces every new government to spend its first six months chasing a parliamentary majority rather than governing, he said. The gap between the election creates dysfunction, including attempts by hostile parliamentary majorities to block budgets and file no-confidence motions against newly elected presidents, he argued.

A report by the Westminster Foundation for Democracy found that vote-buying is widespread in Maldivian elections. Parliamentary candidates allegedly spend between MVR 2 million and MVR 15 million on campaigns.

Transparency Maldives warned that rushing through electoral changes without proper safeguards could exacerbate these abuses, stressing the importance of a transparent referendum process with adequate civic education. If both elections are held together without strengthened oversight, opportunities for vote-buying and the abuse of state resources could multiply rather than diminish, the NGO cautioned.

The poll on April 4 would be the first time Maldivians have been asked to decide a constitutional question at the ballot box since the contested 2007 referendum on the system of government – and the first test of whether the public shares the parliament's appetite for redrawing the country's democratic architecture.