Opinion

Breaking cycles: what’s missing in our blueprint for revolution?

We have the energy. We lack the strategy.

Artwork: Dosain

Artwork: Dosain

This op-ed aims to reach out specifically to those who want to do something for genuine change. This is an open request to anyone and everyone.
For the past few decades, we’ve been replaying this political cycle. Names and faces may change, but take any recent timeframe, political administration, and incident, and run it through these templates below. You will find rare divergences to the pattern:

Someone does something terrible: sometimes it’s a handful of perverts with political affiliations assaulting someone, sometimes it’s passing a stupid law, sometimes it’s a corruption scandal, sometimes it’s environmental destruction – whatever it is, the system is always involved.

The initial news breaks. In the digital era, that means footage circulates, rumours amass, and anonymous accounts with comically obvious political loyalties maul and drag the incident all over social media. Emotions run high and tensions soar. Those in power make their first moves.

You hear about political action. Usually, it’s a series of obedient protests, often organised or co-opted by non-ruling parties or other career politicians.

Initial days are packed with energy. Candid photos, marketing-standard media pieces, tearjerker commentaries from the popular talking heads, and rampant chatter about revolution and reform. You may even think, “finally, we’re about to make a change”.

Soon, it’s curtains: momentum is lost, protests turn out to be carried out in tolerable parades with sports-like chanting and marketing, the organisers turn out to be affiliated with conflicting individuals or scandals, the police cracks down, everyone’s exhausted, everyone still has to go to work or school tomorrow, the world must go on. Then, someone does something horrible again, and the stage resets.

In 1972, Anthony Downs came up with the idea of issue-attention cycles to describe this phenomenon in relation to ecological crises. Arvydas Grišinas builds on this and says political issues become stereotyped, mediatised, and turned into performative cycles by the modern media ecosystem. He argues that political reactions, too, from citizens and those in power alike, become ritualistic. It’s true. It’s not even a hyperbole to say that both those in power and those aspiring towards power as “opposition” both behave towards political issues almost as if following a script. Decline in public interest is calculated and engineered because the capitalist machine wears them out by design.
A graph outlining Anthony Downs' issue-attention cycles.
Even with tipping-point incidents, the elements of performance and dramatisation remain the same. That’s why nothing has changed regarding power structures even after our shift to a multiparty democracy. The resort owner class controls utmost economic power, informal violence is maintained by gangs, state-monopolised violence is enacted by the police and military, and all these forces are interconnected. Even these changes in the political macrocosm are cyclical: people get angry, the old guard is ousted, new faces come in with grand promises, and the cycle repeats under new powers or constitutional repaints.
Our political and economic systems are mirrors of the American ones (especially since our leaders want to serve their economic interests for personal gain), so it follows that like America, our citizens and their actions have little to no influence over politics as opposed to the corporate and social elites who command disproportionate power over the politics of our country. If we reuse Martin Gilens and Benjamin Page’s methodology with our own national variables on policy outcomes and public interest groups, I’m certain we’d find the same results: we are, like the Americans, an oligarchy of corporate and political elites. 
Of course our politics is cyclical: average citizens have no meaningful power, those in power follow a script that works, and political issues are dramatised that way until something new happens.
If you want this cycle broken – if you want real change, justice, and steps towards a country that’s safer, easier, healthier, and better to live in – then you need to ask what’s missing in previous cycles of political tension and change. This needs wider discussion and introspection than just an op-ed, too.

Missing elements: principled reform and intentional action

I want to keep this simple.
What we do have is a politically conscious citizen-body ready to respond to the call of a revolution. The energy and the intentions are there. What we lack, however, are two things:
1-

Principled Reforms: a structured set of ideals specifically tailored to the Maldives that is designed with the intention of uprooting systemic sources of inequality and oppression: capitalistic structures that perpetuate economic inequalities, already existing disproportionate and corrupt distributions and circulation-systems of wealth, paths towards greater citizen accessibility to policymaking and economics, reforms that make it easier for citizens to hold those trusted with national resources and bureaucracies accountable via dissolutions, referendums, and such, and a way towards a society where survival necessities like housing and food are guaranteed equally for everyone. That requires scrapping and rewriting our constitution entirely.

2-

Intentional Action: even if you have ideals, motivations, and truly genuine individuals unaffiliated with party politics or legacy politicians to steward such political currents, our actions need to meaningfully pack a punch and make an impact. That means we need things like:

General Strikes and Other Industrial Action: protests aren’t enough. What hurts both the corporate elites and politicians alike on all sides, ruling or opposition, is to hit the economic machine where it hurts. To bring it to a grinding halt. They cannot fire everyone or force them to go back to work. That is why general strikes work: it chokes the interests of the ruling class and forces concessions. It puts power back into the hands of the working class by staking labour in negotiation.

Disruption: “national security” is just a fancy way of saying “please don’t make our elites feel uneasy”. Disruptive action means non-lethal action that disrupts their interests. If you want to protest, do it in ways that’ll make those in power uncomfortable – organise at airports or tourist destinations. International attention is what they hate the most. Even if a few people do it, the impacts are what makes disruptive action effective. That is why Palestine Action was effective despite its activities including usually only a handful of people, and the testament to its effectiveness is how far the UK government went to stop them.

Without these two elements in combination, I highly doubt any action we take (and any changes we make therefrom) would ever break this vicious cycle. If we want to break this cycle, we need to discuss it, understand it, and understand what’s needed to break it. 
We need to see clearly the roots of our oppression and suffering, and we must rip them out of the ground with surgical precision and intention. And in that, we have a lot of work to do, much to discuss, and so many things to rethink.
  
Editor's note: This op-ed represents the author's views on political organising and systemic reform. The Maldives Independent publishes a range of perspectives on governance and civic action. We do not endorse the specific tactical approaches described herein.  
Mahal Ibrahim Abdulla is a writer, artist, musician, and aspiring social scientist. He works as the managing editor for Moosumi magazine. He is an honours graduate in Politics and Social Policy from the University of Leeds. His goal is to become a researcher – to eventually settle down and live a quiet life. His current research interests are political communication, social psychology, and the degrowth paradigm.  
All comment pieces are the sole view of the author and do not reflect the editorial policy of the Maldives Independent. If you would like to write an opinion piece, please send proposals to editorial@maldivesindependent.com.

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