Maldives reefs at risk as coral tipping point is crossed

“The science is clear. The climate crisis is accelerating. The gap between what we must do and what we are doing, widens daily.”

These were the words spoken by Maldives Climate Envoy Ali Shareef, while delivering Maldives’ national statement at COP30 two weeks ago. 

He called for “accessible, predictable, and primarily grant-based” climate finance for vulnerable countries, and reiterated the Maldives’ call to triple global adaptation finance to US$120 billion by 2030.

It was far from the most compelling speech by a Maldivian delegation head at a climate summit. Yet despite the clichés in the prepared statement, his message was accurate — and now more so than ever.

A new report released ahead of COP has found that warm-water coral reefs have reached their thermal tipping point, making them one of the first major Earth systems to cross a critical threshold due to rising global temperatures — beyond which consequences become irreversible.

The Global Tipping Points report focuses on the planetary boundaries framework - which defines the “safe operating space” for humanity on earth based on nine critical global processes which regulate the stability and resilience of the entire planet. According to the report, seven of the nine planetary boundaries have now been transgressed.

The tipping of warm water coral reefs is a prime example of simultaneous transgression of multiple planetary boundaries.

Scientists estimate the central thermal tipping point for warm-water reefs at 1.2°C, with an upper threshold of 1.5°C. The world is already at 1.4°C of warming on average, and briefly reached 1.5°C for the first time last year. Scientists now expect 1.5°C to be unavoidable.

"The central estimate of the thermal tipping point for warm-water coral reefs of 1.2°C global warming above pre-industrial is already exceeded, and without stringent climate mitigation their upper thermal threshold of 1.5°C may be exceeded within the next 10 years,” states the report, authored by 160 scientists across 23 countries and 87 institutions.

Even under the most optimistic emissions pathways, scientists warn it is “virtually certain (>99% probability)” that warm-water coral reefs will “tip”.

The impacts will be magnified by other stressors — ocean acidification, pollution, unsustainable fishing, invasive species, and disease outbreaks.

The report notes that these risks are already playing out. The 2024 global bleaching event was the worst and most widespread on record, and the second such event within a decade.

Scientists expect “functional warm-water coral reef ecosystems to be severely degraded, except for relatively few isolated refuge areas” unless temperatures return to 1.2°C — and eventually down to 1°C — with only a short period of exceedance.

“Unless we return to global mean surface temperatures of 1.2°C (and eventually at least 1°C) as fast as possible, we will not retain warm-water reefs on our planet at any meaningful scale.”

The report noted the lack of scientific consensus on how much we can count on coral reef resilience.

"If reefs manage to persist in the future, they are likely to be very different to those we benefit from today, with much less diversity in coral species, and lower structural complexity.”

The report does not specifically mention the Maldives, but outlines global thresholds with wide-ranging implications for reef-dependent nations.

Ahmed Shabin, Secretary General of the Maldives Red Crescent and former climatologist at the Maldives Meteorological Service, cautioned against drawing local conclusions without adequate data.

“The projections definitely are bleak,” he said. “The magnitude of impact… depends on who you ask, because these analyses are only as good as the data and methods used.”

With little to no national baselines or long-term monitoring of bleaching, estimating the scale of impacts in the Maldives is difficult, he noted.

Still, “the trends are definitely valid,” Shabin said — even if the magnitude remains uncertain.

He agreed with the report’s conclusion that preventing widespread damage is now unlikely.

“Mitigation in the purest form is very far-fetched, which is why in the humanitarian field (where I am now working), the main focus is around adaptation.”

The report warns that policymakers are unprepared for what lies ahead, calling for “transformational” adaptation measures and governance systems.

“Policy makers and societies remain fully unprepared for the imminence of reefs’ functional collapse… The irreversible loss of many reef functions requires governance systems that prepare societies for profound ecological, social, and economic transitions.”

Scientists called for both global and local action to reduce reef decline, while recognising that the tipping point has been crossed and new forms of anticipatory, transformative governance are required.

These systems will need to prepare societies for drastic changes — particularly coastal nations whose food security and economies depend on reef-based fisheries and tourism.

"The decline of coral reef-based fisheries will reverberate well beyond reef regions, affecting international food trade, nutrition, and global security.”

The report calls for stronger international and regional bodies to coordinate responses, share experiences, and integrate science into policy, helping societies prepare for futures “in which current reef-based subsistence and economic activities may no longer be viable.”

At the national and local levels, coordinated action is required to reduce non-climactic drivers of tipping dynamics, including “pollution from agriculture and industry, overfishing, unsustainable tourism and coastal development”.

Shaha Hashim, Chairperson of Maldives Resilient Reefs, said that while the Maldives cannot meaningfully reduce global emissions, it can take “powerful action” to give reefs a fighting chance.

“By strengthening their resistance and resilience to coral bleaching, we give these vital ecosystems a fighting chance to continue providing the life-sustaining benefits we depend on… This means reducing the pressures we place on our reefs here at home — preventing destructive development, ending overfishing, and reducing pollution.”

She added that the Maldives must accelerate efforts to protect mangroves and seagrass meadows, which store carbon and support reef resilience.

“By safeguarding these ecosystems and supporting nature’s ability to adapt, we can help ensure that our coral reefs endure, recover, and continue to protect and sustain our communities for generations to come.”

The report’s warnings and advice for policymakers stand in stark contrast to local efforts, where the current administration has rolled back environmental protections by dissolving the Environmental Protection Agency and merging the environment ministry with the tourism ministry.

Last week, President Muizzu boasted on social media the arrival of two new dredgers to continue land reclamation projects over the country. 

A study published in 2021 showed that Maldives accounted for more than 60 percent of net global increase in atoll land area as a result of land reclamation. North Male atoll alone contributed 15.5 percent which is comparable to reclamation work in the whole of the South China Sea.